health care

THE ‘SUGGESTIVE’ VS. ‘PREDICTIVE’ ANALYTICS ISSUE

I posted comments on the HealthCIO.com site in response to article suggesting ‘suggestive’ rather than ‘predictive’ analytics (“PA”) provides real, demonstrable benefits and that, rather than PA,  should be today’s primary focus. My point is with the proper vision and commitments here, PA tools offer powerful, exciting new tools to improve health care, both from patient care and financial perspective, reducing claims fraud and improving processes.And these same tools are spawning exciting new ‘analytics-centric’ ventures which I see as a high potential new venture sector and is one of my focus areas.

You can visit the HealthCIO.com site to see the original article “A Suggestion About Predictive Analytics” at http://tinyurl.com/7nw6twd and also see a reply to my comments. Copy of my comments follows:

Paul says:

‘SUGGESTIVE’ AND ‘PREDICTIVE’ ANALYTICS WILL BOTH HELP IMPROVE HEALTH CARE
Thanks for sharing your insights. As a former CEO of a predictive analytics company, and currently leading a new ‘analytics-centric’ leading edge, personal health and wellness company, among other activities, I am pleased to also contribute my perspectives here.
I like your idea of contrasting Suggestive vs. Predictive Analytics- there is obvious proven benefit in using analytics to improve quality at the point of patient care.
With regard to predictive analytics, I am pleased to offer comments:
–Predictive analytics is often muddled in with other statistical tools as you say, it is often difficult to appreciate and understand just how powerful these tools are and what is their specific contribution
–Rather than saying there are two flavors of PA, “easy and hard”, I suggest a better approach is to say there are two PA target opportunity areas in health care (and also in other sectors):
— Using PA to analyze the “known unknowns” – all of the patient treatment enhancements you described fall into this category- addressing known issues and processes, using analytics to improve processes, quality of care, and doing this more efficiently and at lower cost.
—Using PA to analyze the “unknown unknowns” – this is the real and power of predictive analytics and I believe really offers high upside for all health care players, and patients as well
–Look at the magnitude of today’s health care issues. As one example, increasing complexity of medication regimens used by patients, coupled with a fragmented health care system involving multiple prescribers, has made the occurrence of serious drug-drug interactions more likely today than ever before. For example, one study suggests Preventable Adverse Drug Events injure 1.5 million people a year, costs the U.S. healthcare system $3.5 billion and resulting in an estimated 44,000 to 98,000 deaths every year. Some studies show even higher numbers.
–Our aging population exacerbates the above issues. Studies show 41 percent of seniors take
5 or more prescription medications, and more than half has 2 or more prescribing physicians. And 24 percent- about 1 out of 4 – seniors having 3 or more chronic conditions have not shared information with their health care providers during the last 12 months. No wonder medication errors among seniors on Medicare are estimated at almost $900 million.

–We can use the real power of PA to better understand the “unknown-unknown” drivers here that are impacting our health care system, and create powerful new tools, improved processes and do this more efficiently while improving patient care.

–The “unknown-unknown” data I would like to see addresses questions such as why do we have adverse drug events; what are the rules we should be looking at and changing to reduce these events save lives, and reduce health costs; what are the underlying drivers and patterns for adverse drug events- do these vary by geography, treatment modalities, user demographics, specific types of medical facilities, maybe how and where medical practitioners are trained. “Unknown-unknowns” may, for example, identify certain treatment modalities and drug regimens used by select groups of medical professionals which drive adverse drug events. Predictive analytics, an inductive rather than deductive process, offers a powerful tool to help us identify these and many other critical underlying health care drivers.

I agree there are many PA projects that today may seem academic, but I do see great possibilities to improve our health care system, using powerful new predictive analytics computing tools and platforms coupled with more traditional analytics (both suggestive and deductive ‘rule based’ analytics), to dramatically improve the quality of our health care system. These new analytics and tools will address clinical issues such as the growing problem of adverse drug events, as well as addressing Medicare and other health care claims fraud and errors.

We are making progress, but I still believe we can be doing much more to achieve significant improvement in our nation’s health care system and very clear to me predictive analytics and other tools, with the proper vision and commitments, will play a substantive role.

Paul Silverman, Managing Partner, Gemini Business Group, CEO  Sante Corporation, Adjunct Professor, R.H. Smith School of Business in the University of Maryland.

 

v. is what we need to focus on to improve health care

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Seeking Predictive Analytics Company – Health Care, Other Sectors

I am working with several colleagues creating a new analytics company – we are now seeking to acquire a predictive analytics company in the health care sector.Will consider other sectors also. Proprietary tools and methodologies preferred. Early stage companies with revenue will be considered. Startups not being considered at this time.

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Understanding ‘Unknown- Unknown’ Information Drivers Addresses ‘Sea of Data’ Issues and Creates Opportunities

Understanding The ‘Unknown- Unknown’ Information Drivers Addresses ‘Sea of Data’ Issues and Creates Opportunities

I posted comments on Fast Company article discussing ‘Sea of Data’ issues Fast Company Article “Avoiding Short-Term Thinking In A World of Big Data”   http://tinyurl.com/7gaepbl

I shared my vision that predictive analytics is ‘raising the bar’ in how we manage the ‘sea of data’,  and offered comments on new directions I see in manufacturing and health care. Here is a copy of my comments posted on the Fast Company site:

The article makes the point that “…in a sea of data, how can we make sure that we’re not just reacting to the information in front of our face, but rather analyzing every possible input.”

One solution to the problem, not mentioned in the article, is the need to develop new analytics to identify key drivers which create the data ‘outcomes’. Predictive analytics enable us to identify these ‘unknown-unknown’ drivers that can only be found by analyzing data, looking for relationships and new rules that emerge developed by analyzing the data. Contrast this to today’s ‘deductive’ approach using expert opinion and well-defined rules.

This ‘data-driven’ analysis to create new rules is an inductive (rather than deductive ‘expert opinion’ based approach) and from my perspective holds great promise to radically change current business processes, improve productivity and improve our quality of life.

This may sound bold, but as the former CEO of an early stage predictive analytics company and also looking at new opportunities in analytics, I see exciting potential here.

Some possibilities:

Look at manufacturing. If a “supplier’s supplier” has a problem, supply chain management ensures quick notification, before it impacts the assembly line. Predictive analytics engines ‘raise the bar’ here by analyzing historical performance and risk data, often real time, defining future risk and performance drivers, and enabling management to optimize performance and mitigate risk.

Going beyond traditional data mining, these new predictive analytics tools analyze industry reports, government filings, trade press, and other sources to assess supplier “health,” pending regulations, and other “unstructured” data sources. Seamlessly integrating with other data, we can use these to more accurately gauge supplier and production line risk and improve performance.Driving new rules,  providing real time early warning signs that impact future supplier and business performance are the new management tools to harness ‘the sea of data’.

Look at health care, my primary focus, where PA techniques hold great promise to help our current health care system. Consider the benefits of these new capabilities which are only a small sample of what lies ahead here:

•    Tracking  Medical Diagnoses, Treatments, Medications, Outcomes, Costs,Reimbursements, and Relationships

ICD or International Classification of Disease Codes , classifies diseases on health records.CPT or Current Procedural Terminology codes developed by the AMA describe services provided by medical practitioners. Medicare employs a similar system, using ‘HCPCS’. Tracking and examining relationships among these metrics, looking at patient data, identifying processes, and key cost and patient health drivers, you can develop ‘best practices’ to improve the health
care process.

•    Identifying Adverse Drug Analyses – assessing underlying drivers to more effectively identify “at risk” patients

•    Optimizing clinical trials (candidate selection and monitoring) – predicting higher risk clinical trial candidates and assessing the key risk drivers

•    Developing directional indicators to predict the underlying drivers for treatment of chronic disease to understand how medication protocols impact treatment plans and patient outcomes

The new predictive analytic-based tools now emerging in all sectors are helping companies cope with the sea of data problem, and  “raising the bar” in how leading firms optimize business performance in today’s  dynamic global markets.

Paul B. Silverman

Author: Worm on a Chopstick : Understanding Today’s Entrepreneurial Age: Directions, Strategies, Management Perspectives http://paulbsilverman.com/books/

Email:      paul@paulbsilverman.com
blogs:       http://paulbsilverman.com/blog/
Linked in:  Paul Silverman
Twitter:     globalbizmentor

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Utilities Develop Smart Meters:Missing “Marketing 101”

Utilities are developing new monitoring and energy management technologies but are missing ‘Marketing 101’ basics. I posted following comments on Fast Company article http://www.fastcoexist.com/1678981/smart-meters-not-just-for-electricity-anymore#comments

Agree we need to educate the public about smart infrastructure, but we need to refocus our strategy and message here.

Today we take a ‘silo’ approach driven by utilities and what technology driven services they can deliver to the market. Water supply companies describe capabilities from managing real time supply and demand metrics, and creating new features to improve cost performance. Same for electric  utilities.

To secure  public support and  replicate the benefits many other countries have realized, I recommend a “Marketing 101″ approach to policymaking here, starting with the public consumer. First, define benefits we want to deliver, then define the functions and features needed to deliver these benefits. In my ‘Marketing 101’ model, technology is a enabler, a means to the end, to deliver benefits to end users. Remote meter reading and energy management are technical features, not benefits.

I am leading a new health care which will empower users to more effectively manage and track medications, vital signs and wellness using proprietary technology. While it is seductive to start with what I call real,  ‘gee-whiz’ technology, our winning strategy focuses 100% on what users need, want and how we use technology to create benefits to build a sustainable business. Lots of exciting and proprietary technology here, but need to always keep in mind technology is an enabler for the real business.

So going back to our meter reading/energy  technology enabler, following ‘Marketing 101’ thinking, a good starting point in the policy discussion is to develop proposed applications which target sectors and deliver real definable benefits to users. Some
suggestions, and I am sure readers will have many more ideas:

1.Senior Utility Management Program: Integrated program to manage all utilities targeting seniors – integrated billing, management, budgeting service with appliance management and maintenance – turnkey service. While I do not expect utilities to
necessarily offer these services, utilities can take the lead defining these new capabilities, making data available to third party providers, and  create an exciting new market segment which will attract  new ventures. Note utilities can be the driver here, pursuing an ‘open platform’ strategy, setting standards, following the model in other sectors.

2. Home Management Services: Expand the model, leverage M2M (machine to machine) technologies, and offer users a comprehensive utility and home management/monitoring  system, status updates and other features. These applications are emerging in various forms – what I am suggesting is utilities  can be
‘entrepreneurial partners’ here to help jumpstart the process. The M2M market ,  is exploding, and these applications deliver real benefits to users

‘Marketing 101’ thinking works in the commercial sector to develop and drive new business. Given technology advances in the utility sector, I see opportunity for Marketing 101” thinking there also to improve utility cost performance and deliver  real benefits (not just new technology) to users.

Paul B. Silverman

Author: Worm on a Chopstick : Understanding Today’s Entrepreneurial Age: Directions, Strategies, Management Perspectives http://paulbsilverman.com/books/

Email:      paul@paulbsilverman.com
blogs:       http://paulbsilverman.com/blog/
Linked in:  Paul Silverman
Twitter:     globalbizmentor

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Entrepreneurship in the Health Care Sector and Syndicated National Radio Interview – Entrepreneurship- New Directions

Upcoming – TV Interview :Entrepreneurship in the Health Care Sector and Syndicated National Radio Interview: Entrepreneurship- New Directions

I have agreed to do a one hour TV interview on entrepreneurship in the health care sector. The interview will be scheduled for early January and follows my recent live TV interview discussing entrepreneurship on the weekly Upside Business Show on November 21st- the program was well received – copy of broadcast now available at http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/18671440 (click on Nov.21st show if needed)

While we see enormous challenges in today’s health care market, positive developments are emerging. One perspective, which I shared in my recent book ( Amazon at http://tinyurl.com/84texaf), is the pharmaceutical market includes two primary sectors—therapeutics (i.e., drugs) and diagnostics. Therapeutics is the pharmaceutical firms’ traditional business, reported to be about a $400 to $450 billion market.

Compare that to the diagnostics business, which includes several hundred companies, including many early stage entrepreneurial companies. Revenue estimates vary, but total diagnostic sector revenues are estimated at less than $30 billion, or less than 10 percent of a major pharmas traditional business. But diagnostics reduces health care costs and improves patient care, and many exciting developments are emerging providing the tools needed to improve early disease detection and wellness. Most important, we see entrepreneurial firms creating real excitement here. In the upcoming interview, I will share my vision on new directions I foresee and also invite one or more industry representatives to also share their insights.

I also accepted an invitation for an interview on a nationally syndicated NYC radio show to discuss new entrepreneurship directions and policies.

Stay tuned for dates and times – schedules to be firmed up shortly.

 

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